Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty fell for the third day running on Friday due to weak trends in global markets and soaring crude oil prices. Foreign fund outflows also weighed on investor sentiments amid strengthening US bond yields which are nearing 5 per cent for the first time since 2007. The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 231.62 points or 0.35 per cent to settle at 65,397.62.
'India is an equity market with a breadth and depth of companies to invest in.'
tailwinds of a remarkable year and handsome investor returns, Indian equities are set for an eventful journey in 2024, with a slew of local and global cues -- varying from interest rates to Lok Sabha polls to geopolitical happenings. Analysts are of the view that the bull run in the domestic equity market will continue, and over the next 3-6 months, the benchmark indices -- Sensex and Nifty -- could climb up to 7 per cent. In 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 3,626.1 points or 20 per cent.
'If individual stocks start falling 25% to 30% or more, then I doubt how many of them will be able to withstand that (kind of selloff). That is when you'll see panic coming in.'
Among the Sensex firms, Larsen & Toubro, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Titan, Bajaj Finance, Wipro, Tech Mahindra and Nestle were the major laggards. Maruti, Power Grid, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, NTPC, HDFC Bank, ITC and IndusInd Bank were the gainers.
Equity benchmarks declined on Thursday after a two-day rally, mirroring a weak trend in the US markets and fresh foreign fund outflows. Weak US consumer data and hawkish comments from the Fed's policymakers dragged markets lower. The 30-share BSE Sensex dropped 187.31 points or 0.31 per cent to settle at 60,858.43.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
The new Samvat 2080 is viewed as a year of hope for industrial and precious metals. A key reason is the expectation of US interest rates peaking, followed by a reduction in the coming months. Regarding crude oil, its trajectory depends more on how the situation unfolds in West Asia.
The rupee had plunged by 48 paise, logging its biggest fall in more than five weeks, to close at over one-month low of 61.13 against the greenback on Monday following demand for the US currency from importers.
Foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs') net investments in the domestic debt market surged in December, marking a 77-month high, that is, since July 2017. According to market participants, this significant uptick in FPI inflows can be attributed to the post-domestic policy outcome and the US Federal Reserve's dovish stance at the December policy. FPI inflows into debt stood at Rs 18,393 crore in December against Rs 14,106 crore in November, according to data on the National Securities Depository Limited.
The US Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 per cent, only the second increase in a decade.
Commodity investments can help you diversify your portfolio in asset classes other than equity and debt, says Dwaipayan Bose.
Bond markets, global as well as domestic, are likely headed towards hard times over the next three to six months, as higher vegetable prices, rising fuel costs, and improved wages may keep inflation hot, believe analysts, who expect the yields to hit 7.5 per cent in the near-term from the current 7.234 per cent. In this backdrop, they suggest investors can put in money in funds/instruments with residual maturity of 4 to 6 years, while longer-term investors can allocate cautiously to the longer end in the range beyond 7 years.
It could be a tough week In the run-up to such an event, the market is always nervous.
'Gold prices thrive on volatility and more so when the stock markets trend downward.'
If the war in the Israel-Gaza region escalates into a larger West Asian conflict, it could pose problems.
The belief that the Fed knows something that lesser mortals don't is common.
From the Sensex pack, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, NTPC and UltraTech Cement emerged as major winners, closing the day with a gain of up to 3.33 per cent. On the other hand, Asian Paints, ITC, L&T and SBI were the laggards, ending the session up to 3.95 per cent lower. Of the 30 Sensex stocks, 14 closed the day in green, while on the 50-stock index Nifty 25 scrips ended with gains.
With different agencies showing divergent predictions regarding the southwest monsoon, the central government and states are gearing up to face adversity with various line ministries reportedly being directed to undertake mock drills and hold preparatory meetings. Around 56 per cent of the net cultivable area of the country is rain-fed, accounting for 44 per cent of foodgrain production. The June-September rains contribute around 73 per cent of the annual precipitation.
The crisis in confidence in the banking sector is easing. Banks in Europe and America have taken substantial losses both in their proprietary trading departments and in their loan portfolios.
Emerging markets could be affected by a combination of lower liquidity and higher dollar interest rates caused by a hike in the US Fed funds rate.
Announcement of macroeconmic data such as industrial production and inflation, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision along with trends in global equities would dictate movement in the stock market this week, analysts said. Besides, foreign fund trading activity would also guide the trends in equities. "All eyes are now on the US Fed policy outcome for cues, which is scheduled on June 14. In the following sessions, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) will also announce their policy decisions.
Weaker-than-expected growth in US jobs in recent months had already forced US central bankers to put off a rate hike at their meeting last week
Despite recent setback, these remain the most appropriate tool for international diversification
Markets end in red; bluechips struggle to keep pace.
Despite its recent underperformance, gold must be a part of your portfolio.
Tata Motors was the worst performer on the Sensex, plummeting 10.32 per cent to Rs 436.55 after the company reported a steep 96.22 per cent decline in consolidated net profit for the December quarter.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, quarterly earnings of corporates and domestic macroeconomic data will influence trading in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Foreign funds' trading activity, monthly automobile sales data and global trends would also guide market movement this week, they added. Markets would remain closed on Monday on account of 'Maharashtra Day'.
The cut is being seen as an emergency measure to boost the US economy.
At the same time, however, officials at the central bank lowered their projections for the long-run target interest rate, evidence of slightly diminished expectations for a nation climbing out of a severe crisis and struggling with demographic headwinds like declining labor force participation.
US gold futures slid over 1 per cent on Thursday, while silver futures dropped 2 per cent.
'India's sizeable forex reserves should help stem a possible fall in our currency.'
Among the Sensex firms, IndusInd Bank, Power Grid, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance, NTPC, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, Nestle and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers. Infosys, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Hindustan Unilever and Titan were the major laggards.
A weak dollar overseas also aided the rupee rise while fresh sell-off by foreign funds in domestic stocks capped the currency's gains, forex dealers said.
There are already some signs of stress in this market.
Equity markets this week will be largely guided by trends in global stocks, foreign funds' trading activity and progress of monsoon, analysts said. Investors will also track the movement of rupee against the US dollar and crude oil prices. Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed at fresh lifetime highs on Friday.
History would indicate that a recession is not that far off.
The 30-share Sensex closed down 114 points at 28,622 and the 50-share Nifty ended down 37 points at 8,686.
From the Sensex pack, Power Grid, Infosys, Asian Paints, Mahindra & Mahindra, HCL Technologies, IndusInd Bank, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC Bank and Titan were the major gainers. Tata Steel and Bharti Airtel were the laggards.
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